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The reprieve following the ceasefire in Gaza is substantial. Within Israeli borders, the release of captives held alive has sparked extensive joy. Across Palestinian territories, jubilations are also underway as up to 2,000 Palestinian detainees begin their release – even as distress persists due to ambiguity about the identities of those released and their destinations. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, people can now reenter sift through wreckage for the remains of an believed 10,000 missing people.

Ceasefire Emergence Contrary to Earlier Odds

Just three weeks ago, the chance of a ceasefire looked improbable. However it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump departed Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he participated in a high-level peace summit of over 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The plan for peace launched at that summit is scheduled to proceed at a conference in the UK. The US president, acting with international partners, managed to secure this deal take place – contrary to, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dreams of Independence Qualified by Historical Realities

Hopes that the deal represents the initial move toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, considering previous instances, somewhat optimistic. It offers no clear path to sovereignty for Palestinians and threatens dividing, for the foreseeable future, Gaza from the West Bank. Furthermore the utter devastation this war has caused. The absence of any timeframe for Palestinian self-determination in the presidential proposal gives the lie to vainglorious allusions, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “era of prosperity”.

Donald Trump was unable to refrain from polarising and individualizing the deal in his speech.

In a period of relief – with the hostage release, halt in fighting and resumption of aid – he opted to reframe it as a morality play in which he exclusively reinstated Israel’s honor after supposed betrayal by past US commanders-in-chief Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration twelve months prior having tried a comparable agreement: a truce linked to aid delivery and eventual negotiations.

Substantive Control Crucial for Legitimate Peace

A initiative that refuses one side substantive control cannot produce authentic resolution. The ceasefire and aid trucks are to be welcomed. But this is not yet political progress. Without systems ensuring Palestinian engagement and authority over their own institutions, any deal risks freezing oppression under the rhetoric of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Reconstruction Challenges

Gaza’s people urgently require relief assistance – and nutrition and medication must be the primary focus. But rebuilding must not be delayed. Among 60 million tonnes of rubble, Palestinians need assistance restoring dwellings, schools, medical centers, mosques and other organizations devastated by Israel’s invasion. For Gaza’s provisional leadership to prosper, monetary resources must be disbursed rapidly and security gaps be filled.

Similar to a large portion of Donald Trump's diplomatic proposal, allusions to an global peacekeeping unit and a proposed “peace council” are worryingly ambiguous.

International Support and Prospective Outcomes

Strong international support for the Gaza's governing body, allowing it to replace Hamas, is perhaps the most encouraging scenario. The immense hardship of the recent period means the moral case for a resolution to the conflict is possibly more urgent than ever. But although the truce, the repatriation of the hostages and pledge by Hamas to “remove weapons from” Gaza should be recognized as positive steps, the president's track record provides scant basis to trust he will fulfill – or feel bound to endeavor. Short-term relief does not imply that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.